W is for Weather
According to the Whether Man, from the book The Phantom Tollbooth, “It’s more important to know whether there will be weather, than what the weather will be.” Never a truer word was spoken.
We live in an age where meteorologists have all the fancy computers that can be used to predict weather patterns and forecast the weather, and yet with all the information and tools that they have, they only can give a limited percentage of correct information, it seems.
How many days have you watched or listened to the weather report and it gives you information that changed from previous information that they gave you.
“It’s going to rain today.” Well, no it didn’t.
“Prepare for heavy snowfall.” That would be the dusting we got.
Don’t you love when they give you percentages? If they don’t give you a 0% or 100% of something in their prediction, they can’t be wrong.
“There is a 1% chance of a tornado today in your area.” When the tornado hits, their claim is, “Well that puts you in the 1%”
The same goes for when you are in a high probability:
“Today’s forecast shows a 90% chance of heavy fog and blizzard conditions.” When you have clear visibility and light snow, you were just part of the 10%. They must have been correct.
It’s very frustrating to try and prepare for something when several different sources give you different predictions. And don’t get me started about 5 and 10-day forecasts. You should try tracking how much they change as they get closer to that 5th and 10th day and what the real weather is like when that day arrives.
Climate is a different issue. There, they are talking from a grand historical perspective, where the data is reliable. And the predictions that they make are actually coming to pass, which is pretty scary. You should pay attention to them.
But as to weather, I’m satisfied to look or step outside and predict what I should be wearing and preparing for. Let the forecasters predict for me whether there will weather today or not. Hopefully, I will be able to rely on that being accurate.
